Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
