Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as China escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.
This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.
“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.
Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.
That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.
Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.
An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.
On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.
Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.
Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.
Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.
Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.
Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.
Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.
In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.
While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.
Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.
“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”
The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.
Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.
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