A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
